The New England Journal of Medicine October 18, 2018

Effect of Aspirin on Disability-free Survival in the Healthy Elderly

John J. McNeil et al.

Bottom Line

In healthy community-dwelling older adults, daily low-dose aspirin did not prolong disability-free survival but significantly increased the risk of major hemorrhage compared to placebo.

Key Findings

1. Theprimarycompositeoutcomeofdisability-freesurvival(death, dementia, orpersistentphysicaldisability)occurredatasimilarrateinbothgroups:21.5eventsper1000person-yearswithaspirinversus21.2per1000person-yearswithplacebo(HR1.01;95%CI, 0.92to1.11;P=0.79)[1.4].
2. Cardiovascular disease events were not significantly reduced by aspirin (10.7 vs. 11.3 events per 1000 person-years; HR 0.95; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.08).
3. Aspirin use resulted in a significantly higher risk of major hemorrhage compared to placebo (8.6 vs. 6.2 events per 1000 person-years; HR 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.62; P<0.001).
4. All-cause mortality was unexpectedly higher in the aspirin group (12.7 vs. 11.1 events per 1000 person-years; HR 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.29), primarily driven by cancer-related deaths, though researchers interpreted this secondary finding with caution.

Study Design

Design
RCT
Double-Blind
Sample
19,114
Patients
Duration
4.7 yr
Median
Setting
Australia, US
Population Community-dwelling older adults (≥70 years of age, or ≥65 years among Black and Hispanic individuals in the US) without established cardiovascular disease, dementia, or persistent physical disability.
Intervention Enteric-coated aspirin 100 mg daily.
Comparator Matching placebo.
Outcome Disability-free survival, defined as a composite of death from any cause, incident dementia, or persistent physical disability.

Study Limitations

The trial was terminated early for futility regarding the primary endpoint (median follow-up of 4.7 years), limiting insights into potential longer-term effects of aspirin therapy.
Adherence to the assigned intervention declined over the course of the study, falling to 62.1% in the aspirin group and 64.1% in the placebo group during the final year.
The unexpected increase in cancer-related mortality in the aspirin group may have been a chance finding exacerbated by multiple comparisons or the relatively short follow-up duration.
The enrolled population was overwhelmingly healthy ('healthy volunteer bias'), exhibiting lower-than-expected overall cardiovascular event rates, which potentially limits generalizability to frailer elderly populations.

Clinical Significance

The ASPREE trial fundamentally shifted clinical guidelines regarding the routine use of aspirin for primary prevention in older adults. By demonstrating that the bleeding risks of low-dose aspirin outweigh any theoretical benefits in preventing cardiovascular events or extending healthy lifespan, it established that aspirin should generally not be initiated for primary prevention in patients aged 70 and older.

Historical Context

For decades, aspirin was widely prescribed as a primary prevention tool to prevent heart attacks and strokes, largely based on extrapolation from robust secondary prevention data and earlier trials in middle-aged populations (e.g., the Physicians' Health Study). However, background rates of cardiovascular disease have declined over time due to lower smoking rates and the widespread use of statins and antihypertensives. In 2018, the simultaneous publication of the ASPREE, ASCEND (in diabetics), and ARRIVE (in moderate-risk patients) trials decisively proved that for modern primary prevention populations, the absolute risk of major bleeding associated with aspirin generally nullifies or exceeds its modest cardiovascular benefits.

Guided Discussion

High-yield insights from every perspective

Med Student
Medical Student

Through what mechanism does aspirin increase the risk of major hemorrhage, and why are older adults particularly susceptible to this adverse effect?

Key Response

Aspirin irreversibly inhibits COX-1, preventing thromboxane A2 synthesis and impairing platelet aggregation for the lifespan of the platelet. Older adults have age-related vascular fragility, increased prevalence of cerebral amyloid angiopathy, and reduced gastrointestinal mucosal integrity, making them significantly more vulnerable to severe bleeding complications from impaired hemostasis.

Resident
Resident

How should the results of the ASPREE trial change your approach to a 72-year-old patient who presents for an annual wellness visit and is currently taking daily low-dose aspirin 'for their heart' without any history of cardiovascular disease?

Key Response

The resident must recognize this as primary prevention in an older adult. ASPREE showed no disability-free survival benefit and significantly increased bleeding risk. Management involves discussing the risks of continued therapy and safely deprescribing aspirin, recognizing that historical practices of universal aspirin use for primary prevention are no longer supported by current evidence.

Fellow
Fellow

ASPREE reported an unexpected increase in all-cause mortality in the aspirin group, primarily attributed to cancer-related deaths. How does this finding contrast with prior evidence regarding aspirin and cancer, and how should a specialist interpret this paradox?

Key Response

Previous studies suggested aspirin has a delayed protective effect against colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. The ASPREE finding of increased cancer mortality was unexpected. Fellows should understand that while aspirin might prevent early neoplastic transformation in middle age, initiating it in older age could potentially promote the progression, metastasis, or bleeding complications of established microscopic tumors, though it may also represent a statistical chance finding.

Attending
Attending

As an attending physician, how do you navigate the shared decision-making process with a long-term patient who has been on primary prevention aspirin for 20 years, given that ASPREE specifically focused on initiating aspirin rather than continuing it?

Key Response

ASPREE studied the initiation of aspirin in adults over 70. Discontinuing aspirin in someone who has tolerated it for decades without bleeding involves different risk-benefit calculations. Attendings must teach trainees to differentiate between avoiding initiation versus deprescribing in chronic users, emphasizing personalized shared decision-making that weighs the cumulative bleeding risk of aging against the psychological and unknown physiological risks of withdrawal.

Scholarly Review

Critical appraisal through the lens of expert reviewers and guideline development

PhD
PhD

The ASPREE trial used a composite primary endpoint of 'disability-free survival' encompassing death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. What are the methodological advantages and potential statistical pitfalls of using this specific composite endpoint in a geriatric primary prevention trial?

Key Response

Advantages include capturing the true net clinical benefit relevant to older adults (quality of life and independence) rather than isolated surrogate cardiovascular events, and increasing statistical power. Pitfalls include the assumption that the components are of equal weight to the patient, and that the intervention might have opposing effects on different components (e.g., reducing vascular dementia but increasing hemorrhagic stroke death), muddying the interpretation of the overall treatment effect.

Journal Editor
Journal Editor

If reviewing the ASPREE manuscript, how would you critically evaluate the generalizability of the findings given the trial's enrollment criteria, specifically the requirement for participants to be entirely free of cardiovascular disease, dementia, and physical disability at age 70?

Key Response

A seasoned reviewer would flag the 'healthy volunteer effect'. By requiring individuals to reach age 70 without any of these conditions, the trial selected for a highly resilient biological subset of the population. The editorial significance is whether these findings apply to the typical 70-year-old seen in clinical practice, who often has mild cognitive or physical impairments and multiple comorbidities, potentially altering the baseline risk-to-benefit ratio.

Guideline Committee
Guideline Committee

Based on the ASPREE findings, how should cardiovascular prevention guidelines be updated regarding the age cutoffs and strength of recommendation for routine aspirin use in primary prevention?

Key Response

Following ASPREE (alongside ARRIVE and ASCEND), guidelines such as the 2019 ACC/AHA guidelines were updated to state that low-dose aspirin should not be administered on a routine basis for primary prevention of ASCVD among adults over 70 years of age (Class III recommendation: Harm). The committee must justify shifting from older, more permissive guidelines to a strong recommendation against use, citing definitive RCT evidence demonstrating that bleeding harm definitively outweighs ischemic benefit in this demographic.

Clinical Landscape

Noteworthy Related Trials

2005

Women's Health Study (WHS)

n = 39,876 · NEJM

Tested

Aspirin 100 mg every other day

Population

Initially healthy women aged 45 years or older

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

First major cardiovascular event (nonfatal MI, nonfatal stroke, or CV death)

Key result: Aspirin lowered the risk of stroke but had no significant effect on the risk of myocardial infarction or overall major cardiovascular events, while increasing gastrointestinal bleeding.
2018

ASCEND Trial

n = 15,480 · NEJM

Tested

Aspirin 100 mg daily

Population

Adults with diabetes mellitus without evident cardiovascular disease

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

First serious vascular event (MI, stroke, TIA, or CV death)

Key result: Aspirin significantly reduced the risk of serious vascular events but also significantly increased the risk of major bleeding, resulting in no clear net benefit.
2018

ARRIVE Trial

n = 12,546 · Lancet

Tested

Aspirin 100 mg enteric-coated daily

Population

Adults at moderate estimated risk of a first cardiovascular event

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Composite of CV death, MI, unstable angina, stroke, or TIA

Key result: Aspirin did not significantly reduce the rate of cardiovascular events compared to placebo but did increase the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding.

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