New England Journal of Medicine JANUARY 24, 2019

Dapagliflozin and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes (DECLARE-TIMI 58)

Stephen D. Wiviott, Itamar Raz, Marc P. Bonaca, et al. for the DECLARE–TIMI 58 Investigators

Bottom Line

In a large, broad cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of hospitalization for heart failure and cardiovascular death/hospitalization for heart failure, while meeting noninferiority criteria for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

Key Findings

1. Dapagliflozin met noninferiority criteria for MACE compared to placebo (8.8% vs 9.4%; HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.84-1.03; p<0.001 for noninferiority), though it did not demonstrate superiority (p=0.17).
2. Dapagliflozin significantly reduced the co-primary efficacy endpoint of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure (4.9% vs 5.8%; HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.73-0.95; p=0.005).
3. The benefit on the composite endpoint was primarily driven by a reduced risk of hospitalization for heart failure (2.5% vs 3.3%; HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.61-0.88).
4. There was no significant difference in cardiovascular death alone (HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.82-1.17) or all-cause mortality between the study arms.

Study Design

Design
RCT
Double-Blind
Sample
17,160
Patients
Duration
4.2 yr
Median
Setting
Multinational, multicenter
Population Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and either established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or multiple risk factors for cardiovascular disease.
Intervention Dapagliflozin 10 mg daily
Comparator Matching placebo
Outcome Co-primary efficacy outcomes were the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke (MACE) and the composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure.

Study Limitations

The trial was a superiority study for MACE, but the results failed to achieve statistical significance for this endpoint in the overall population.
The population included a large proportion of patients without established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (primary prevention cohort), which may dilute the detectable impact on MACE compared to studies restricted to secondary prevention.
The median follow-up of 4.2 years, while substantial, limits insights into longer-term outcomes beyond that period.

Clinical Significance

This trial reinforces the robust heart failure benefits associated with SGLT2 inhibitors across a broad spectrum of patients with type 2 diabetes, supporting their use as standard of care in high-risk patients to prevent heart failure-related hospitalizations regardless of whether they have established ASCVD.

Historical Context

Following regulatory mandates for cardiovascular safety trials for new diabetes medications, this trial was designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of dapagliflozin in a large, contemporary population, moving beyond the exclusively secondary prevention designs of earlier trials like EMPA-REG OUTCOME.

Guided Discussion

High-yield insights from every perspective

Med Student
Medical Student

By what physiological mechanism does dapagliflozin, an SGLT2 inhibitor, contribute to a reduction in heart failure hospitalizations beyond its role in lowering blood glucose?

Key Response

SGLT2 inhibitors promote osmotic diuresis and natriuresis by inhibiting glucose and sodium reabsorption in the proximal tubule. This reduction in preload and afterload, alongside improvements in myocardial metabolism and reduction in interstitial edema, provides a hemodynamic benefit that occurs independently of HbA1c reduction.

Resident
Resident

In a patient with Type 2 Diabetes and multiple cardiovascular risk factors but no established atherosclerotic disease, how does the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial influence your decision to initiate an SGLT2 inhibitor versus other second-line agents like DPP-4 inhibitors?

Key Response

DECLARE-TIMI 58 included a large primary prevention cohort (approx. 60% with only multiple risk factors). The trial showed that dapagliflozin reduced the risk of hospitalization for heart failure even in this group. Therefore, SGLT2 inhibitors should be prioritized over DPP-4 inhibitors (which are generally CV-neutral or, in the case of saxagliptin, increase HF risk) for patients at high risk for heart failure.

Fellow
Fellow

Unlike the EMPA-REG OUTCOME and CANVAS trials, DECLARE-TIMI 58 did not achieve statistical significance for its MACE primary endpoint. What specific patient demographic differences between these trials likely explain this divergence in atherosclerotic outcomes?

Key Response

The DECLARE-TIMI 58 population was lower-risk, with 60.2% having multiple risk factors but no established ASCVD, compared to 0% in EMPA-REG and 34% in CANVAS. This lower baseline event rate for myocardial infarction and stroke meant the trial was underpowered to detect a significant MACE reduction within the study timeframe, highlighting that SGLT2i benefits for MACE are most evident in secondary prevention.

Attending
Attending

DECLARE-TIMI 58 reported an increased risk of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and genital infections but did not confirm the signal for increased lower-limb amputations seen in CANVAS. How does this safety profile shape your shared decision-making process for a patient with T2DM and peripheral arterial disease?

Key Response

The lack of an amputation signal in DECLARE-TIMI 58 (and later trials) suggests that the CANVAS finding may have been a fluke or specific to canagliflozin. For a patient with PAD, the clear benefit in heart failure and renal protection usually outweighs the potential amputation risk, though clinicians should still emphasize foot care and monitor for euglycemic DKA during periods of illness or surgery.

Scholarly Review

Critical appraisal through the lens of expert reviewers and guideline development

PhD
PhD

Analyze the impact of using a hierarchical testing strategy for dual primary endpoints (MACE and CV death/HHF) in the context of DECLARE-TIMI 58's statistical power and Type I error control.

Key Response

The trial used a hierarchical approach: first testing noninferiority for MACE, then superiority for the two primary endpoints. By pre-specifying this order and splitting the alpha for superiority tests, researchers maintained rigorous control over the family-wise error rate. However, the choice of a lower-risk population meant that while HHF (a more frequent event in this cohort) reached significance, MACE failed to do so, demonstrating how endpoint selection must be calibrated to the expected event rate of the recruited population.

Journal Editor
Journal Editor

Given the 'neutral' MACE results in DECLARE-TIMI 58, should this paper be framed primarily as a heart failure prevention study rather than a cardiovascular safety study, and how does the choice of 'Multiple Risk Factors' as an inclusion criterion affect the trial's impact factor?

Key Response

A critical reviewer would note that while it met its safety (noninferiority) MACE goal, its primary 'punchline' is heart failure reduction in a broad population. The inclusion of primary prevention patients increases the paper's significance and 'impact' because it extends the evidence base to a much larger real-world population (those with T2DM but no prior MI/stroke), moving the drug class beyond the niche of secondary prevention.

Guideline Committee
Guideline Committee

How do the results of DECLARE-TIMI 58 justify the elevation of SGLT2 inhibitors in the ADA Standards of Care for patients with T2DM and 'Multiple Risk Factors' who do not yet have established ASCVD or heart failure?

Key Response

Current ADA guidelines recommend SGLT2 inhibitors for patients with T2DM and multiple risk factors (such as hypertension, smoking, or dyslipidemia) to reduce the risk of heart failure hospitalization. DECLARE-TIMI 58 provides the Level A evidence for this recommendation, as it is the only major CVOT with a large enough primary prevention subgroup to demonstrate a consistent HHF benefit across both primary and secondary prevention cohorts.

Clinical Landscape

Noteworthy Related Trials

2015

EMPA-REG OUTCOME Trial

n = 7,020 · NEJM

Tested

Empagliflozin 10mg or 25mg

Population

T2DM patients with established cardiovascular disease

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

3-point MACE

Key result: Empagliflozin significantly reduced the risk of cardiovascular death, hospitalization for heart failure, and death from any cause compared to placebo.
2017

CANVAS Program

n = 10,142 · NEJM

Tested

Canagliflozin

Population

T2DM patients with high cardiovascular risk

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

3-point MACE

Key result: Canagliflozin treatment resulted in a lower risk of cardiovascular events, though it was associated with an increased risk of amputation.
2019

CREDENCE Trial

n = 4,401 · NEJM

Tested

Canagliflozin 100mg

Population

T2DM patients with chronic kidney disease and albuminuria

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Composite of end-stage kidney disease, doubling of serum creatinine, or renal/CV death

Key result: Canagliflozin significantly reduced the risk of major kidney disease events and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetic kidney disease.

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