New England Journal of Medicine November 11, 2023

Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes

A. Michael Lincoff, Kirstine Brown-Frandsen, Helen M. Colhoun, John Deanfield, Scott S. Emerson, Sille Esbjerg, Søren Hardt-Lindberg, G. Kees Hovingh, Steven E. Kahn, Robert F. Kushner, Ildiko Lingvay, Tugce K. Oral, Marie M. Michelsen, Jorge Plutzky, Christoffer W. Tornøe, Donna H. Ryan

Bottom Line

In patients with preexisting cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity but without diabetes, weekly subcutaneous semaglutide (2.4 mg) significantly reduced the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events by 20% compared to placebo.

Key Findings

1. The primary composite cardiovascular endpoint (death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal MI, or nonfatal stroke) occurred in 6.5% (569 of 8,803) of the semaglutide group versus 8.0% (701 of 8,801) of the placebo group, yielding a 20% relative risk reduction (Hazard Ratio 0.80; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.90; P<0.001) [1.1].
2. Patients receiving semaglutide experienced a mean reduction in body weight of 9.4% over 104 weeks, compared to a 0.9% reduction in the placebo group.
3. Death from cardiovascular causes, a secondary endpoint, occurred in 2.5% of the semaglutide group and 3.0% of the placebo group; however, this difference did not meet the prespecified hierarchical testing threshold for statistical significance (Hazard Ratio 0.85; 95% CI, 0.71 to 1.01; P=0.07).
4. Adverse events leading to permanent discontinuation of the trial product were twice as frequent with semaglutide (16.6%) compared to placebo (8.2%), predominantly driven by gastrointestinal intolerance.

Study Design

Design
RCT
Double-Blind
Sample
17,604
Patients
Duration
39.8 mo
Median
Setting
Multicenter, global
Population Adults 45 years of age or older with preexisting cardiovascular disease (previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, or symptomatic peripheral arterial disease) and a body-mass index of 27 or greater, but no history of diabetes.
Intervention Semaglutide 2.4 mg administered subcutaneously once weekly.
Comparator Matching placebo administered subcutaneously once weekly.
Outcome A composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke in a time-to-first-event analysis.

Study Limitations

The study cohort predominantly consisted of men (approximately 72%), potentially limiting the ability to assess gender-specific variations in outcomes.
Racial and ethnic minority groups were underrepresented, which restricts the broad demographic generalizability of the findings.
The trial exclusively enrolled patients with established atherosclerosis, meaning these cardioprotective effects remain unproven for primary cardiovascular prevention.
High rates of gastrointestinal side effects in the active arm resulted in a significant drug discontinuation rate, which may affect real-world adherence.

Clinical Significance

The SELECT trial radically shifted the paradigm of cardiovascular and metabolic medicine by providing the first definitive evidence that an anti-obesity medication can directly reduce hard cardiovascular outcomes (MACE). It establishes semaglutide not just as a lifestyle or weight-loss drug, but as an essential secondary cardioprotective therapy for overweight and obese patients with established cardiovascular disease, regardless of their glycemic status.

Historical Context

For decades, cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) for anti-obesity medications either failed to show long-term benefit or revealed cardiotoxic harms (e.g., the withdrawal of sibutramine or fenfluramine). While GLP-1 receptor agonists had robustly demonstrated cardiovascular risk reduction in patients with type 2 diabetes (such as in the LEADER and SUSTAIN-6 trials), their capacity to alter cardiovascular trajectories in patients strictly with obesity and no diabetes was entirely unknown. SELECT is a landmark trial because it formally decoupled incretin-driven cardiovascular benefits from diabetes management, creating a new therapeutic pillar for atherosclerosis and obesity.

Guided Discussion

High-yield insights from every perspective

Med Student
Medical Student

What is the primary mechanism of action of semaglutide, and what are the proposed physiological pathways by which it reduces major adverse cardiovascular events independently of glucose-lowering effects?

Key Response

Semaglutide is a GLP-1 receptor agonist. Its cardiovascular benefits in non-diabetic patients are multifactorial, including significant weight reduction (decreased visceral adiposity), reduced systemic inflammation (indicated by lowered hsCRP), improved endothelial function, and reduced blood pressure, demonstrating cardioprotective effects extending well beyond glycemic control.

Resident
Resident

A 58-year-old patient with a BMI of 29, a history of myocardial infarction, and an HbA1c of 5.6% asks if they should start semaglutide. Based on the SELECT trial, what is your recommendation, and what are the most critical adverse effects to counsel them about?

Key Response

This patient perfectly fits the SELECT trial inclusion criteria (established CVD, BMI over 27, no diabetes). Semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly is indicated to reduce MACE. Counseling must emphasize gastrointestinal side effects (nausea, vomiting, diarrhea), which are the most common cause of drug discontinuation, underscoring the necessity of gradual dose titration.

Fellow
Fellow

In the SELECT trial, the cardiovascular event curves diverge relatively early, before maximal weight loss is achieved. How does this early divergence influence our understanding of the pleiotropic effects of GLP-1 receptor agonists versus the hemodynamics of weight loss itself?

Key Response

The early divergence suggests direct anti-atherosclerotic, anti-inflammatory, and plaque-stabilizing effects of GLP-1 receptor activation, rather than benefits derived solely from mechanical or metabolic offloading of weight loss, which takes months to reach its nadir. This challenges the paradigm that obesity medications only improve CV outcomes indirectly.

Attending
Attending

The SELECT trial fundamentally shifts the indication of semaglutide from a weight-management adjunct to a disease-modifying cardiovascular therapy. How does this shift impact our clinical practice regarding secondary prevention, and how can these data be leveraged to overcome systemic barriers like insurance coverage?

Key Response

Labeling obesity treatment as secondary cardiovascular prevention mandates a practice shift from viewing weight loss as a cosmetic or lifestyle issue to treating it as a core cardiovascular risk factor comparable to LDL-C or hypertension. It provides robust outcomes data to advocate for payer coverage based on hard MACE reduction, moving beyond surrogate endpoints.

Scholarly Review

Critical appraisal through the lens of expert reviewers and guideline development

PhD
PhD

The SELECT trial utilized a time-to-first-event analysis for the primary composite MACE endpoint. How might the high rate of gastrointestinal-related drug discontinuation and subsequent off-trial use of other incretin-based therapies introduce bias into the intention-to-treat analysis, and how should future trial estimands address this?

Key Response

High discontinuation rates in the treatment arm combined with the rapidly changing landscape of obesity pharmacotherapy (where placebo patients might seek out GLP-1 RAs off-study) can attenuate the observed treatment effect in an ITT analysis. Future designs must employ precise estimands that account for intercurrent events like starting out-of-trial medications to isolate the true biological efficacy.

Journal Editor
Journal Editor

While the SELECT trial demonstrated a 20% relative risk reduction in MACE, what critical appraisal concerns would a seasoned reviewer raise regarding the uniformity of the composite endpoint drivers and the generalizability of the enrolled cohort?

Key Response

A rigorous reviewer would scrutinize whether the 20% reduction was driven uniformly by cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI, and non-fatal stroke, or disproportionately by just one component. They would also flag the demographic limitations (e.g., underrepresentation of specific ethnic groups or women) and demand transparency on how missing data from early dropouts was imputed.

Guideline Committee
Guideline Committee

Given the SELECT trial findings, how should the ACC/AHA guidelines for the secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) be updated, and what Level of Evidence should be assigned to GLP-1 receptor agonists in non-diabetic patients with obesity?

Key Response

Current ACC/AHA secondary prevention guidelines heavily emphasize statins, antiplatelets, and RAAS inhibition, with weight management mostly restricted to lifestyle and behavioral interventions. SELECT provides Level of Evidence A data to support a Class I recommendation for adding a GLP-1 RA (semaglutide 2.4 mg) to standard-of-care pharmacotherapy in patients with established ASCVD and BMI over 27, marking a historic integration of anti-obesity medications into formal secondary CV prevention protocols.

Clinical Landscape

Noteworthy Related Trials

2016

SUSTAIN-6

n = 3,297 · NEJM

Tested

Subcutaneous semaglutide 0.5 mg or 1.0 mg weekly

Population

Patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Time to first occurrence of 3-point MACE

Key result: Semaglutide significantly reduced the rate of major adverse cardiovascular events by 26 percent compared to placebo.
2016

LEADER

n = 9,340 · NEJM

Tested

Liraglutide up to 1.8 mg daily

Population

Patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Time to first occurrence of 3-point MACE

Key result: Liraglutide significantly reduced the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events and death from cardiovascular causes.
2021

STEP 1

n = 1,961 · NEJM

Tested

Subcutaneous semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly

Population

Adults with overweight or obesity without diabetes

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Percentage change in body weight at 68 weeks

Key result: Participants receiving semaglutide 2.4 mg achieved a highly significant mean weight loss of 14.9 percent.

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