The Lancet AUGUST 29, 2017

Associations of fats and carbohydrate intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 18 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study

Mahshid Dehghan, Andrew Mente, Xiaohe Zhang, et al. (on behalf of the PURE study investigators)

Bottom Line

In this large-scale global prospective cohort study, higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality, while higher intake of total fat and individual types of fat was associated with a lower risk of total mortality.

Key Findings

1. High carbohydrate intake (highest vs. lowest quintile) was associated with a 28% increased risk of total mortality (HR 1.28; 95% CI 1.12–1.46).
2. Total fat intake in the highest versus lowest quartile was associated with a 23% reduction in the risk of total mortality (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.67–0.87).
3. Higher intake of all types of fat—saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated—was associated with significantly reduced total mortality, ranging from 14% to 20% lower risk compared to the lowest intake groups.
4. Higher saturated fat intake was associated with a 21% decrease in the risk of stroke.

Study Design

Design
Prospective Cohort Study
N/A
Sample
135,335
Patients
Duration
7.4 yr
Median
Setting
Multicenter, 18 countries
Population Adults aged 35 to 70 years from 18 low-, middle-, and high-income countries across five continents.
Intervention Higher intake of total, saturated, and unsaturated fats.
Comparator Lower intake of total, saturated, and unsaturated fats (and varying degrees of carbohydrate intake).
Outcome Total mortality and major cardiovascular disease events (including myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and cardiovascular death).

Study Limitations

The study relied on self-reported dietary intake using country-specific food frequency questionnaires, which are prone to recall bias and measurement error.
The observational nature of the cohort study design precludes establishing definitive causality between specific dietary nutrients and long-term health outcomes.
Potential for residual confounding remains, as dietary patterns are often intertwined with socioeconomic status and other lifestyle factors that vary significantly across the diverse participating countries.
The 'highest carbohydrate' intake groups in certain low-income settings may reflect poverty-driven diets high in refined carbohydrates rather than optimal nutritional patterns.

Clinical Significance

The findings challenge traditional dietary guidelines that emphasize restricting total fat intake to below 30% of energy, suggesting that a balanced diet with higher fat consumption and lower carbohydrate intake may be more beneficial for mortality outcomes in global populations.

Historical Context

The PURE study was launched to address the global shift in cardiovascular disease risk factors across varying stages of epidemiologic transition, building on international collaborations like the INTERHEART study to provide insights beyond Western-centric dietary data.

Guided Discussion

High-yield insights from every perspective

Med Student
Medical Student

The PURE study found that very high carbohydrate intake (>60% of energy) was associated with increased mortality. From a pathophysiological perspective, how does a high-carbohydrate diet influence the hepatic lipid profile and systemic inflammation compared to a diet higher in fats?

Key Response

High carbohydrate intake, particularly refined sugars, stimulates de novo lipogenesis in the liver and increases insulin secretion. This often leads to an increase in triglycerides and small dense LDL particles, while decreasing HDL-C. Chronically high insulin levels and glucose fluctuations are also linked to systemic inflammation and oxidative stress, which contribute to multi-organ dysfunction and increased mortality, whereas dietary fats (especially unsaturated) can be anti-inflammatory.

Resident
Resident

A patient with metabolic syndrome asks if they should switch to a 'low-fat' diet to reduce their risk of death. Based on the PURE study findings, how should you counsel them regarding the replacement of dietary fats with carbohydrates?

Key Response

The PURE study indicates that replacing fat with carbohydrates is associated with worse outcomes, including higher total mortality. Residents should counsel patients to focus on 'quality over quantity,' avoiding the trap of replacing fats with refined carbohydrates (a common result of 'low-fat' labeling). The study suggests that moderate intake of fats (including saturated fats) does not increase CVD risk and may actually lower the risk of stroke.

Fellow
Fellow

The PURE study observed an inverse association between saturated fat intake and stroke risk, but no significant association with major cardiovascular events. How does this finding challenge the traditional 'diet-heart hypothesis,' and what role might the different vascular beds play in this discrepancy?

Key Response

The diet-heart hypothesis suggests SFA increases LDL-C, which linearly increases CVD risk. However, PURE suggests this relationship is not straightforward. Saturated fat's effect on increasing HDL-C and lowering triglycerides may be more protective against stroke (especially hemorrhagic) than it is causative for coronary artery disease. Fellows must recognize that LDL-C is only one biomarker and that macronutrients affect vascular beds (cerebrovascular vs. coronary) through multiple complex mechanisms.

Attending
Attending

Considering the global reach of the PURE study across 18 countries with varying income levels, how should these findings shift our approach to global health nutrition policy, specifically regarding the 'over-nutrition' vs. 'malnutrition' paradigms in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs)?

Key Response

In many LMICs, high carbohydrate intake is a marker of poverty and food insecurity, where calories are derived almost exclusively from refined starches (white rice/bread) lacking micronutrients. Attending physicians should use this to teach that 'excess' carbs are often a surrogate for nutrient deficiency. The PURE study suggests that for much of the world, the priority should be increasing nutrient density (including fats and proteins) rather than simply restricting fat to prevent chronic disease.

Scholarly Review

Critical appraisal through the lens of expert reviewers and guideline development

PhD
PhD

The PURE study utilized Food Frequency Questionnaires (FFQs) to assess intake across 18 diverse nations. What are the specific methodological limitations of using standardized FFQs in such a heterogeneous population, and how might 'residual confounding' by socioeconomic status affect the carbohydrate-mortality association?

Key Response

FFQs are prone to recall bias and may not capture regional cooking methods or specific local foods accurately across five continents. Furthermore, because high carbohydrate intake is strongly correlated with lower socioeconomic status in many regions, the 'carbohydrate-mortality' link may be partially confounded by poor access to healthcare, sanitation, and clean water, which are difficult to adjust for perfectly in observational models.

Journal Editor
Journal Editor

As a reviewer, how would you address the 'substitution effect' in the PURE study's statistical model? Does the increased mortality risk stem from the carbohydrates themselves, or from the corresponding deficiency of essential fatty acids and proteins in high-carb cohorts?

Key Response

In nutritional epidemiology, calories are a zero-sum game. If carbohydrate intake is 75%, fat and protein must be low. A critical reviewer would flag that the study may not be proving carbohydrates are 'toxic,' but rather that diets deficient in fats and proteins (which fall below 10-15% in the highest carb quintile) are inadequate for long-term survival. The editorial significance lies in whether the hazard ratios reflect the presence of a 'bad' macronutrient or the absence of 'good' ones.

Guideline Committee
Guideline Committee

Current AHA/ACC and WHO guidelines generally recommend limiting saturated fatty acids (SFA) to <10% (or even <7%) of total energy intake. Given that PURE found the lowest mortality risk at SFA intakes of 10-13% and found no harm in higher total fat, should the 'low-fat' messaging be officially retired in favor of a 'high-carbohydrate restriction' threshold?

Key Response

This finding directly challenges the 'limit SFA' mantra of current guidelines (like the USDA Dietary Guidelines for Americans). The committee must weigh PURE's massive sample size and global diversity against potential flaws (observational nature). If accepted, it suggests that the current <10% SFA ceiling may be too restrictive and that guidelines should pivot toward warning against high refined carbohydrate intake (>60% of energy) rather than focusing on fat reduction.

Clinical Landscape

Noteworthy Related Trials

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Comparator

Prudent Western-type diet

Endpoint

Recurrence of myocardial infarction or death from coronary causes

Key result: The Mediterranean-style diet led to a significant reduction in cardiac events and mortality compared to the standard Western diet after secondary prevention.
2006

WHI Dietary Modification Trial

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Low-fat dietary pattern

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Invasive breast cancer, colorectal cancer, and coronary heart disease

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2013

PREDIMED Trial

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Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil or nuts

Population

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Comparator

Reduced-fat diet

Endpoint

Major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes)

Key result: Among persons at high cardiovascular risk, a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil or nuts reduced the incidence of major cardiovascular events.

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