JAMA AUGUST 19, 1998

Heart and Estrogen/progestin Replacement Study (HERS)

Hulley S, Grady D, Bush T, et al. (HERS Research Group)

Bottom Line

The HERS trial demonstrated that oral conjugated equine estrogen plus medroxyprogesterone acetate did not reduce the overall rate of coronary heart disease events in postmenopausal women with established coronary heart disease, while highlighting an early increase in cardiovascular risk.

Key Findings

1. The primary outcome of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease events showed no significant difference between treatment and placebo groups, with a relative hazard (RH) of 0.99 (95% CI, 0.80–1.22).
2. There was a statistically significant temporal trend, with an increased risk of coronary heart disease events in the hormone group during the first year of treatment and a decline in risk observed in years 4 and 5.
3. Hormone therapy was associated with a significant increase in venous thromboembolic events (RH 2.89; 95% CI, 1.50–5.58) and gallbladder disease (RH 1.38; 95% CI, 1.00–1.92).
4. The lack of clinical benefit occurred despite a favorable lipid profile improvement, with a 11% lower LDL cholesterol and 10% higher HDL cholesterol in the hormone group (p<0.001).

Study Design

Design
RCT
Double-Blind
Sample
2,763
Patients
Duration
4.1 yr
Median
Setting
Multicenter, US
Population Postmenopausal women under 80 years with established coronary heart disease.
Intervention Oral conjugated equine estrogen (0.625 mg/d) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (2.5 mg/d).
Comparator Placebo.
Outcome Combined endpoint of nonfatal myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease death.

Study Limitations

The study only tested a single formulation and dosage of oral conjugated equine estrogen (0.625 mg/d) and medroxyprogesterone acetate (2.5 mg/d), limiting generalizability to other hormone regimens or delivery routes.
The population consisted of older postmenopausal women with established, advanced coronary disease, which may not be representative of younger women or those without pre-existing vascular disease.
Declining adherence to study medication over the 4.1-year follow-up period may have impacted the assessment of long-term efficacy.
The trial was conducted in a pre-statin era, and low utilization of modern evidence-based secondary prevention therapies may have influenced baseline event rates.

Clinical Significance

The HERS trial shifted clinical practice by demonstrating that hormone replacement therapy should not be initiated or continued for the specific purpose of secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in postmenopausal women with established coronary heart disease.

Historical Context

Published in 1998, HERS was the first large-scale, prospective, randomized clinical trial to test the long-standing observational 'dogma' that hormone replacement therapy was cardioprotective in postmenopausal women. The results directly contradicted decades of observational data, triggering a major paradigm shift in women's health and cardiovascular medicine.

Guided Discussion

High-yield insights from every perspective

Med Student
Medical Student

What was the primary physiological rationale for expecting hormone replacement therapy (HRT) to reduce coronary heart disease events in postmenopausal women, and why did the HERS trial findings challenge this assumption?

Key Response

Before HERS, it was widely believed that estrogen's ability to lower LDL cholesterol and raise HDL cholesterol would naturally lead to cardioprotection. The trial's null result demonstrated that improving surrogate markers (lipids) does not always translate into improved clinical outcomes, likely due to the concurrent prothrombotic and pro-inflammatory effects of oral estrogen.

Resident
Resident

A 65-year-old postmenopausal patient with a history of myocardial infarction asks to start conjugated equine estrogen and medroxyprogesterone acetate to protect her heart. Based on HERS, what is the appropriate clinical recommendation?

Key Response

The HERS trial explicitly showed that starting hormone therapy for the purpose of secondary prevention of CHD in women with established disease provides no benefit and increases the risk of early cardiovascular events and venous thromboembolism. Therefore, HRT should not be initiated for cardiac protection in this population.

Fellow
Fellow

Analyze the 'early harm' phenomenon observed in the first year of the HERS trial. How does this finding influence the interpretation of the 'timing hypothesis' in menopausal hormone therapy?

Key Response

HERS observed a 50% increase in CHD events during year one, followed by a potential downward trend in later years. This suggests that in women with established, advanced atherosclerosis, the immediate prothrombotic effects of estrogen/progestin outweigh any long-term anti-atherosclerotic benefits, supporting the idea that the 'window of opportunity' for HRT may be limited to younger women with healthier endothelium.

Attending
Attending

How did the HERS trial fundamentally change the approach to evidence-based medicine regarding observational versus interventional data in women's health?

Key Response

HERS was a watershed moment because it directly contradicted strong observational evidence (e.g., from the Nurses' Health Study) that suggested a 35-50% reduction in CHD risk. It highlighted the 'healthy user bias' inherent in observational studies and reinforced the necessity of large-scale randomized controlled trials to validate clinical practice, especially for long-term preventive therapies.

Scholarly Review

Critical appraisal through the lens of expert reviewers and guideline development

PhD
PhD

In the context of the HERS trial design, how might the selection of a fixed-dose oral combination of CEE and MPA, versus transdermal or lower-dose formulations, affect the generalizability of the findings regarding the 'class effect' of hormone therapy?

Key Response

Oral administration involves first-pass hepatic metabolism, increasing the production of clotting factors and C-reactive protein. A PhD researcher would note that HERS specifically tested one formulation; therefore, the results may not generalize to transdermal routes which bypass the liver, or to different progestogens that might not negate the vasodilatory effects of estrogen.

Journal Editor
Journal Editor

As a reviewer, what concerns would you raise regarding the high rate of treatment discontinuation (crossover) in the HERS trial, and how does the 'intention-to-treat' analysis mitigate or complicate these concerns?

Key Response

By the end of the study, a significant portion of both the hormone and placebo groups had discontinued or started the intervention, respectively. While ITT analysis preserves randomization and provides a conservative estimate of effect, the high crossover rate potentially biases the results toward the null, making it more difficult to detect a true treatment effect if one existed.

Guideline Committee
Guideline Committee

Given the HERS findings and subsequent HERS II follow-up, what level of evidence and strength of recommendation should be assigned to the use of MHT for secondary prevention in current cardiovascular guidelines?

Key Response

Based on HERS, major guidelines such as the AHA/ACC and the North American Menopause Society (NAMS) provide a Level A evidence rating and a strong recommendation against using MHT for secondary prevention of CHD. Current guidelines state that MHT should be reserved for the treatment of moderate-to-severe vasomotor symptoms in women without contraindications, rather than for chronic disease prevention.

Clinical Landscape

Noteworthy Related Trials

2002

Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Estrogen Plus Progestin Trial

n = 16,608 · JAMA

Tested

Conjugated equine estrogens plus medroxyprogesterone acetate

Population

Postmenopausal women with an intact uterus

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Incidence of invasive breast cancer and coronary heart disease

Key result: The trial was stopped early because the risks of breast cancer, coronary heart disease, stroke, and pulmonary embolism outweighed the benefits of hormone therapy.
2004

Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Estrogen-Alone Trial

n = 10,739 · JAMA

Tested

Conjugated equine estrogens

Population

Postmenopausal women who had undergone hysterectomy

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke

Key result: Estrogen-alone did not reduce the risk of coronary heart disease and was associated with an increased risk of stroke.
2013

The KEEPS Trial

n = 727 · PLOS Med

Tested

Oral conjugated equine estrogen or transdermal estradiol

Population

Recently postmenopausal women (ages 42-58)

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Progression of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT)

Key result: Neither form of hormone therapy had a significant effect on the progression of atherosclerosis as measured by CIMT compared to placebo.

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