American Journal of Perinatology October 25, 2019

17-OHPC to Prevent Recurrent Preterm Birth in Singleton Gestations (PROLONG Study): A Multicenter, International, Randomized Double-Blind Trial

Sean C. Blackwell et al.

Bottom Line

In women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth, weekly 17-OHPC injections did not significantly reduce the risk of recurrent preterm birth or neonatal morbidity compared to placebo.

Key Findings

1. Preterm birth < 35 weeks occurred in 11.0% of the 17-OHPC group versus 11.5% of the placebo group (RR = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.71-1.26).
2. The neonatal morbidity composite index occurred in 5.6% of the 17-OHPC group compared to 5.0% of the placebo group (RR = 1.12; 95% CI: 0.68-1.61).
3. Fetal/early infant death was similar between groups, occurring in 1.7% of the 17-OHPC arm versus 1.9% of the placebo arm (RR = 0.87; 95% CI: 0.4-1.81).
4. In the United States subgroup (n = 391, 23% of total), the rate of preterm birth < 35 weeks was 15.6% with 17-OHPC versus 17.6% with placebo (RR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.55-1.40), demonstrating no statistically significant difference.

Study Design

Design
RCT
Double-Blind
Sample
1,708
Patients
Duration
until delivery or 36 weeks
Median
Setting
Multicenter, International
Population Women with a previous singleton spontaneous preterm birth, currently in a singleton gestation enrolled between 16 0/7 and 20 6/7 weeks.
Intervention Weekly intramuscular (IM) injections of 250 mg of 17-alpha-hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17-OHPC), continued until delivery or 36 weeks.
Comparator Weekly intramuscular (IM) injections of an inert oil placebo.
Outcome Co-primary outcomes were preterm birth < 35 weeks and a neonatal morbidity composite index (including neonatal death, grade 3 or 4 intraventricular hemorrhage, respiratory distress syndrome, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, necrotizing enterocolitis, or proven sepsis).

Study Limitations

• The overall baseline risk of recurrent preterm birth in the placebo group was lower than anticipated (11.5%), which may have reduced the statistical power to detect a treatment effect.
• The trial enrolled a demographic with a lower baseline risk profile compared to previous US-centric trials; 87% were Caucasian, 89% were married or living with a partner, and less than 2% had baseline cervical shortening.
• Only 23% of the participants were enrolled in the United States, prompting debate over whether international data could be generalized to the higher-risk US obstetric population.

Clinical Significance

The PROLONG trial failed to confirm the clinical benefits of 17-OHPC (Makena) that were previously reported in earlier research. Demonstrating no efficacy in preventing recurrent preterm birth or improving neonatal morbidity, this pivotal negative result prompted a critical re-evaluation of progestogen use for this indication and ultimately led the FDA to withdraw the drug's approval.

Historical Context

In 2003, the Meis trial (conducted by the MFMU Network) reported that 17-OHPC significantly reduced recurrent preterm birth, which led to the FDA granting accelerated approval to the drug (marketed as Makena) in 2011. As a condition of that accelerated approval, the FDA mandated a confirmatory Phase 3 trial, which became the PROLONG study. When PROLONG failed to replicate the original efficacy findings, it ignited intense debate within the maternal-fetal medicine community regarding study design, demographic differences, and drug efficacy, culminating in the FDA officially withdrawing Makena from the US market in 2023.

Guided Discussion

High-yield insights from every perspective

Med Student
Medical Student

Physiologically, why was 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17-OHPC) initially hypothesized to prevent preterm birth, and what role does endogenous progesterone normally play in maintaining pregnancy?

Key Response

Endogenous progesterone is essential for maintaining early pregnancy and later promotes uterine quiescence by suppressing myometrial contractility, inhibiting gap junction formation, and preventing cervical ripening. 17-OHPC, a synthetic progestin, was hypothesized to supplement these effects in women at risk for premature delivery, though the PROLONG trial ultimately questioned its clinical efficacy in preventing recurrent preterm birth.

Resident
Resident

A pregnant patient at 14 weeks gestation with a history of a prior spontaneous preterm birth at 28 weeks asks if she should start weekly progesterone injections. Based on the findings of the PROLONG trial and subsequent FDA actions, how should you counsel her, and what alternative management should be offered?

Key Response

Residents must know that due to the negative findings of the PROLONG trial, the FDA withdrew approval for 17-OHPC (Makena) in 2023. The patient should be counseled that 17-OHPC is no longer recommended or available. Instead, management should focus on serial transvaginal ultrasound cervical length monitoring between 16 and 24 weeks, with the potential use of vaginal progesterone or cervical cerclage if a short cervix is identified.

Fellow
Fellow

The results of the PROLONG trial directly contradicted the landmark 2003 Meis trial. What were the critical demographic, epidemiological, and baseline risk differences between the populations in these two studies that might explain the divergent outcomes?

Key Response

The Meis trial consisted of a predominantly US, high-risk, largely African American population with a very high placebo preterm birth rate (approx. 55%). In contrast, PROLONG was an international study, heavily reliant on Eastern European sites, with a much lower placebo preterm birth rate (11.5%). Fellows must understand how baseline population risk profoundly impacts the observed efficacy of an intervention and complicates cross-trial comparisons.

Attending
Attending

How does the 15-year trajectory of 17-OHPC—from its widespread adoption following the Meis trial to the PROLONG study and subsequent FDA withdrawal—serve as a teaching model for 'medical reversal' and the limitations of accelerated drug approvals based on single trials?

Key Response

Attendings must lead practice changes and teach critical appraisal. The 17-OHPC story is a classic example of medical reversal, highlighting the danger of entrenching a standard of care based on a single trial with unusually high event rates in the control group. It emphasizes to learners the necessity of robust, adequately powered confirmatory trials before universally adopting a therapy.

Scholarly Review

Critical appraisal through the lens of expert reviewers and guideline development

PhD
PhD

The PROLONG trial observed a placebo event rate of 11.5% for preterm birth before 35 weeks, which was significantly lower than anticipated. How does a lower-than-expected baseline event rate impact statistical power, and how could future global obstetric trials use adaptive designs to mitigate background rate heterogeneity?

Key Response

A drastically lower baseline event rate severely reduces a trial's power to detect a hypothesized relative risk reduction, raising the question of whether the trial became underpowered or if the drug truly lacks efficacy. Methodologists would argue for adaptive trial designs that allow for sample size re-estimation based on interim, blinded event rates, or stratified randomization by baseline risk to ensure adequate power across diverse geographical sites.

Journal Editor
Journal Editor

As a peer reviewer evaluating the PROLONG manuscript, what concerns would you raise regarding the 'standard of care paradox' and selection bias introduced by the difficulty of enrolling US patients, given that 17-OHPC was already the established standard of care in the US at the time of the trial?

Key Response

Because 17-OHPC was ACOG standard of care in the US during enrollment, high-risk US patients were unlikely to consent to randomization where they might receive a placebo. Consequently, the trial had to enroll primarily in countries where 17-OHPC was not standard of care. A critical reviewer would flag this as a major threat to external validity, questioning whether the enrolled cohort accurately represented the high-risk US populations most targeted by the drug.

Guideline Committee
Guideline Committee

In light of the PROLONG trial and the FDA's withdrawal of Makena, how must SMFM and ACOG guidelines for the prevention of recurrent spontaneous preterm birth be rewritten regarding the algorithm for patients with a prior preterm birth, and what level of evidence now supports these changes?

Key Response

Guidelines previously gave a strong recommendation (Level A evidence based on Meis) for 17-OHPC in all women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth. Following PROLONG (Level A evidence contradicting Meis), guidelines must shift from universally recommending prophylactic 17-OHPC to recommending risk stratification via serial cervical length screening, reserving interventions like vaginal progesterone or cerclage only for those who develop a shortened cervix.

Clinical Landscape

Noteworthy Related Trials

2003

Meis Trial

n = 463 · NEJM

Tested

17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate weekly injection

Population

Women with a history of spontaneous preterm delivery

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Preterm delivery before 37 weeks

Key result: 17-OHPC significantly reduced the rate of preterm delivery before 37 weeks compared to placebo.
2011

PREGNANT Trial

n = 458 · Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol

Tested

Vaginal progesterone gel 90mg daily

Population

Asymptomatic women with a short cervix mid-trimester

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Preterm birth before 33 weeks

Key result: Vaginal progesterone significantly reduced the incidence of preterm birth before 33 weeks in women with a short cervix.
2016

OPPTIMUM Trial

n = 1,228 · Lancet

Tested

Vaginal progesterone 200mg daily

Population

Women at high risk for preterm birth due to history or short cervix

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Delivery before 34 weeks and composite neonatal morbidity

Key result: Vaginal progesterone did not significantly reduce the risk of preterm birth before 34 weeks or adverse neonatal outcomes.

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