The New England Journal of Medicine December 14, 2023

Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes

A. Michael Lincoff, Kirstine Brown-Frandsen, Helen M. Colhoun, John Deanfield, Scott S. Emerson, et al.

Bottom Line

In patients with overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular disease but without diabetes, once-weekly semaglutide 2.4 mg significantly reduced the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events by 20% compared to placebo.

Key Findings

1. Semaglutide 2.4 mg reduced the risk of the primary composite MACE outcome (cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke) by 20% compared to placebo (6.5% vs 8.0%; Hazard Ratio 0.80; 95% CI 0.72-0.90; P<0.001) [3.2.1].
2. At 104 weeks, semaglutide treatment resulted in a mean weight reduction of 9.4%, compared to a 0.9% reduction in the placebo group.
3. Adverse events leading to trial drug discontinuation occurred more frequently in the semaglutide group (16.6%) compared to the placebo group (8.2%), predominantly driven by gastrointestinal complications (10.0% vs. 2.0%).

Study Design

Design
RCT
Double-Blind
Sample
17,604
Patients
Duration
39.8 mo
Median
Setting
41 countries
Population Adults aged 45 years or older with overweight or obesity (BMI >= 27) and established cardiovascular disease (prior myocardial infarction, prior stroke, or symptomatic peripheral arterial disease), without a history of diabetes.
Intervention Semaglutide 2.4 mg administered subcutaneously once weekly.
Comparator Matching placebo administered subcutaneously once weekly.
Outcome Composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke (3-point MACE), assessed in a time-to-first-event analysis.

Study Limitations

The trial exclusively enrolled secondary prevention patients with established cardiovascular disease, meaning the findings may not generalize to primary prevention in overweight or obese patients without prior cardiovascular events [3.1.1].
The study population lacked extensive racial and ethnic diversity, which limits the global generalizability of the results.
A high rate of early drug discontinuation occurred in the semaglutide arm (16.6%) due to gastrointestinal intolerance.
It remains mechanistically unclear to what extent the cardiovascular benefit was driven directly by the weight loss itself versus the pleiotropic anti-inflammatory and endothelial effects of GLP-1 receptor agonism.

Clinical Significance

The SELECT trial represents a major paradigm shift in cardiology and obesity medicine, demonstrating for the first time that treating obesity with a GLP-1 receptor agonist directly improves 'hard' cardiovascular endpoints in patients without diabetes. This effectively establishes semaglutide 2.4 mg as a disease-modifying cardiovascular therapy and has prompted regulatory label expansions for secondary cardiovascular risk reduction.

Historical Context

Prior trials, such as LEADER and SUSTAIN-6, established that GLP-1 receptor agonists could reduce major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. However, historical anti-obesity medications were either marred by cardiovascular toxicity (e.g., sibutramine, fen-phen) or failed to demonstrate definitive cardiovascular outcome improvements (e.g., lorcaserin). The SELECT trial successfully bridged this gap, proving that pharmacological weight management can safely and effectively reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a purely overweight or obese population.

Guided Discussion

High-yield insights from every perspective

Med Student
Medical Student

How does the mechanism of action of GLP-1 receptor agonists like semaglutide contribute to cardiovascular risk reduction in patients without diabetes, and what physiologic pathways might be involved beyond simple weight loss?

Key Response

Students need to understand that GLP-1s not only stimulate insulin and suppress glucagon but also have direct endothelial effects, reduce systemic inflammation, decrease epicardial fat, and improve lipid profiles, which collectively reduce atherothrombotic risk independently of baseline HbA1c.

Resident
Resident

A 55-year-old patient with a BMI of 31 and a history of myocardial infarction asks to start semaglutide for cardiovascular protection. What are the key contraindications, potential adverse effects you must counsel them on, and how would you manage the dose titration to maximize adherence?

Key Response

Residents must translate trial data to the clinic. Key counseling includes GI side effects (nausea, vomiting, risk of pancreatitis) and contraindications (MEN2, medullary thyroid cancer). Titration is crucial to mitigate GI distress, usually starting at 0.25 mg weekly and escalating every 4 weeks.

Fellow
Fellow

The SELECT trial demonstrated a 20 percent reduction in MACE. When analyzing the timing of this benefit, how does the trajectory of cardiovascular risk reduction compare chronologically to the trajectory of weight loss, and what does this imply about the drug's cardioprotective mechanisms?

Key Response

Fellows should recognize that the cardiovascular benefit curves diverge early, often before clinically significant weight loss is fully achieved. This suggests pleiotropic, anti-inflammatory, or direct plaque-stabilizing effects of GLP-1 RAs rather than purely weight-loss-mediated benefits.

Attending
Attending

Given the high cost and the phenomenon of weight and cardiometabolic rebound upon discontinuation of GLP-1 RAs, how should we approach the ethical, economic, and long-term adherence challenges of prescribing semaglutide 2.4 mg broadly for secondary prevention?

Key Response

Attendings must balance evidence-based medicine with health equity and resource allocation. While the NNT is favorable for MACE reduction, the drug's high cost, insurance barriers, and the chronic nature of obesity treatment present massive systemic challenges in real-world prescribing.

Scholarly Review

Critical appraisal through the lens of expert reviewers and guideline development

PhD
PhD

The SELECT trial enrolled a secondary prevention population, which inherently has higher event rates. What methodological challenges arise when attempting to extrapolate these findings to model a primary prevention trial in obese patients without CVD, and what biomarker-driven surrogate endpoints would be most robust?

Key Response

PhDs must critique generalizability. A primary prevention trial would require a massive sample size and much longer follow-up to detect MACE differences due to lower baseline event rates. Identifying validated surrogate markers (e.g., hsCRP reduction, plaque morphology via CTA) is critical for feasible future trial designs.

Journal Editor
Journal Editor

From an editorial perspective, how effectively did the SELECT trial control for informative censoring due to disproportionate drop-out rates from gastrointestinal adverse events in the semaglutide arm, and could differential adherence to background statin therapy have confounded the MACE outcomes?

Key Response

A seasoned reviewer will look for drop-out imbalances that could skew intention-to-treat analyses. Additionally, if the treatment arm had better compliance to other life-saving meds due to weight-loss motivation or more frequent monitoring, the isolated effect of semaglutide might be overestimated.

Guideline Committee
Guideline Committee

Based on the SELECT trial findings, should semaglutide 2.4 mg be elevated to a Class I recommendation in ACC/AHA guidelines for secondary cardiovascular prevention in patients with overweight or obesity irrespective of their glycemic status, and how does this alter the traditional lipid-centric secondary prevention paradigm?

Key Response

Guideline committees must integrate this data to potentially shift semaglutide from purely an anti-obesity agent to a primary cardiovascular risk-reduction tool. The rationale involves assessing if the Level of Evidence from this large RCT justifies routine use alongside statins and antiplatelets for all secondary prevention patients with a BMI over 27.

Clinical Landscape

Noteworthy Related Trials

2016

SUSTAIN-6 Trial

n = 3,297 · NEJM

Tested

Semaglutide 0.5 mg or 1.0 mg weekly

Population

T2DM patients with high CV risk

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

3-point MACE

Key result: Semaglutide significantly reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke compared to placebo.
2016

LEADER Trial

n = 9,340 · NEJM

Tested

Liraglutide up to 1.8 mg daily

Population

T2DM patients with high CV risk

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

3-point MACE

Key result: Liraglutide significantly lowered the rate of the first occurrence of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke among patients with type 2 diabetes.
2021

STEP 1 Trial

n = 1,961 · NEJM

Tested

Semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly

Population

Adults with overweight or obesity without diabetes

Comparator

Placebo

Endpoint

Percentage change in body weight

Key result: Participants receiving semaglutide achieved a mean weight loss of 14.9 percent from baseline at 68 weeks, compared to 2.4 percent with placebo.

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