New England Journal of Medicine November 02, 2026

TAVR in Patients with Moderate Aortic Stenosis with At-Risk Features

Philippe Généreux, Raj R. Makkar, Philippe Pibarot, Jeroen J. Bax, Brian R. Lindman, et al. (PROGRESS Trial Investigators)

Bottom Line

Among patients with moderate aortic stenosis and at-risk features, early transcatheter aortic-valve replacement (TAVR) significantly reduced the 2-year composite incidence of death or heart-failure events compared to standard clinical surveillance.

Key Findings

1. At 2 years, the primary composite endpoint of death from any cause or a heart-failure event occurred in 16.7% of the TAVR group compared to 23.9% of the clinical-surveillance group (risk difference, -7.2 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, -13.1 to -1.3; P=0.02 for superiority).
2. The 2-year Kaplan-Meier estimate for death from any cause was 8.4% in the TAVR group and 7.3% in the clinical-surveillance group.
3. The 2-year Kaplan-Meier estimate for a heart-failure event was notably lower in the TAVR group (10.8%) than in the clinical-surveillance group (19.0%).
4. The incidence of procedure-related adverse events did not differ meaningfully between patients originally assigned to the TAVR group and those in the clinical-surveillance group who ultimately underwent aortic-valve replacement.

Study Design

Design
RCT
Open-Label
Sample
744
Patients
Duration
2 yr
Median
Setting
International
Population Patients with moderate aortic stenosis (mean aortic-valve area 1.2 cm², mean peak velocity 3.3 m/s) and at least one at-risk feature (symptom or structural/functional abnormality associated with faster disease progression or adverse outcomes); mean age 78 years, 39.1% women, 45.6% at low surgical risk.
Intervention Transfemoral transcatheter aortic-valve replacement (TAVR) with a balloon-expandable valve.
Comparator Clinical surveillance with echocardiographic assessment every 1 or 2 years.
Outcome A composite of death from any cause or a heart-failure event with or without hospitalization at 2 years.

Study Limitations

• The open-label design introduces the potential for bias in patient management and the reporting of more subjective heart failure symptoms, though this is mitigated by evaluating hospitalization and death.
• The 2-year follow-up period may be too short to adequately capture the long-term mortality impact of early valve replacement, as reflected by the similar all-cause death rates at 2 years.
• The trial specifically evaluated a balloon-expandable valve platform, meaning the outcomes might not be directly generalizable to self-expanding TAVR systems or surgical aortic valve replacement.
• The inclusion criterion of 'at least one at-risk feature' allows for clinical heterogeneity within the study population, combining both functional/structural abnormalities and patient symptoms.

Clinical Significance

The PROGRESS trial represents a major paradigm shift in the management of valvular heart disease. By demonstrating that pre-emptive TAVR safely reduces the risk of heart failure events compared to the standard "watch and wait" strategy, it challenges the long-standing guideline threshold requiring progression to severe aortic stenosis prior to intervention. It suggests that moderate aortic stenosis in the presence of high-risk structural or symptomatic markers is not benign and merits earlier definitive treatment.

Historical Context

Historically, guidelines have firmly anchored the decision to replace an aortic valve on the severity of stenosis (e.g., valve area <1.0 cm² and peak velocity >4.0 m/s) coupled with the onset of symptoms or left ventricular dysfunction. For moderate aortic stenosis, standard management has been periodic clinical and echocardiographic surveillance. However, increasing observational data indicated that patients with moderate aortic stenosis who possess certain high-risk phenotypes—such as myocardial damage, left ventricular hypertrophy, or subtle symptoms—face substantial morbidity and mortality. Building on previous trials like EARLY TAVR that pushed indications into asymptomatic severe cohorts, the PROGRESS trial is the first robust, randomized evaluation of whether intervening early in the moderate stage improves clinical outcomes.

Guided Discussion

High-yield insights from every perspective

Med Student
Medical Student

What hemodynamic criteria traditionally define moderate versus severe aortic stenosis, and pathophysiologically, why might a patient with only 'moderate' stenosis still develop heart failure symptoms and benefit from valve replacement?

Key Response

Moderate AS is typically defined by an aortic valve area of 1.0 to 1.5 cm2 and a mean gradient of 20 to 39 mmHg. Pathophysiologically, 'at-risk' patients may have reduced left ventricular compliance, baseline diastolic dysfunction, or concurrent systolic dysfunction where even a moderate increase in afterload from the stenotic valve creates a supply-demand mismatch, leading to elevated filling pressures and clinical heart failure.

Resident
Resident

When evaluating a patient with moderate aortic stenosis in the clinic, what specific clinical, biomarker, or echocardiographic 'at-risk' features should prompt you to consider referring them for early TAVR rather than routine clinical surveillance?

Key Response

Residents must recognize clinical markers of myocardial decompensation. 'At-risk' features in moderate AS often include left ventricular systolic dysfunction (HFrEF), significant diastolic dysfunction (HFpEF), elevated BNP/NT-proBNP, severe left ventricular hypertrophy, or myocardial fibrosis. Recognizing these allows the resident to identify patients who are failing to tolerate the moderate afterload and advocate for early intervention.

Fellow
Fellow

Given the findings that early TAVR benefits moderate AS with at-risk features, how does this alter our diagnostic approach to low-flow, low-gradient AS, and what are the long-term implications of prosthetic valve durability in this earlier-stage cohort?

Key Response

Fellows must grapple with the overlap between true moderate AS and pseudo-severe low-flow, low-gradient AS (which requires dobutamine stress echo or calcium scoring). Furthermore, intervening earlier in the disease course means the patient will live longer with the bioprosthetic valve, increasing their lifetime risk of structural valve degeneration and necessitating strategic planning for future valve-in-valve procedures.

Attending
Attending

How should we integrate early TAVR for moderate aortic stenosis into shared decision-making discussions, balancing the immediate 2-year reduction in heart failure events against upfront procedural risks and the commitment to a lifelong prosthesis pathway?

Key Response

Attendings must balance new evidence with holistic patient care. While early intervention reduces composite death and heart failure events, it introduces upfront risks such as bleeding, vascular complications, and the potential need for permanent pacemakers. The discussion must weigh the patient's current quality of life and specific at-risk phenotype against the inevitable trajectory of structural valve deterioration over the next decade.

Scholarly Review

Critical appraisal through the lens of expert reviewers and guideline development

PhD
PhD

The primary endpoint of this trial is a composite of death or heart-failure events. In an unblinded trial comparing an invasive procedure to clinical surveillance, how might the inclusion of a softer, adjudicator-dependent endpoint like 'heart failure hospitalization' drive the composite outcome, and what statistical methodologies best address this bias?

Key Response

In unblinded device trials, both patients and clinicians know who received the valve, which can bias the subjective decision to hospitalize or escalate diuretics for 'heart failure.' Evaluating the independent contribution of hard endpoints (all-cause mortality) versus softer endpoints via competing risk models, Win Ratio analyses, and ensuring rigorous blinding of the Clinical Events Committee is critical to validating true treatment efficacy.

Journal Editor
Journal Editor

As a peer reviewer evaluating this manuscript, what specific details regarding the standardization of the 'standard clinical surveillance' arm would you scrutinize to ensure the study's internal validity?

Key Response

If the 'standard surveillance' arm did not receive optimal, strictly protocolized guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) for heart failure, or if crossover to TAVR upon disease progression was artificially delayed, the early TAVR arm might appear spuriously superior. Editors must demand rigorous documentation of medical therapy optimization and trigger points for crossover to ensure the observed benefit is truly from early valve deployment rather than substandard conservative care.

Guideline Committee
Guideline Committee

Current ACC/AHA valvular heart disease guidelines reserve Class 1 recommendations for AVR primarily for severe, symptomatic AS (Stage D) or severe asymptomatic AS with LVEF under 50% (Stage C). Based on this trial, what specific criteria must be met to upgrade early TAVR in moderate AS to a Class 2a recommendation, and how will this redefine the current staging nomenclature?

Key Response

Historically, moderate AS is classified as Stage B (progressive disease), with watchful waiting recommended. Upgrading the guidelines requires defining highly specific, reproducible 'at-risk' criteria (e.g., distinct biomarker thresholds or MRI findings) to prevent inappropriate over-intervention. This trial suggests creating a new intervention threshold for a 'high-risk Stage B' phenotype, effectively recognizing that myocardial vulnerability can trump traditional hemodynamic severity criteria.

Clinical Landscape

Noteworthy Related Trials

2016

PARTNER 2A Trial

n = 2,032 · NEJM

Tested

TAVR with SAPIEN XT valve

Population

Patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis at intermediate surgical risk

Comparator

Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement (SAVR)

Endpoint

Composite of death from any cause or disabling stroke at 2 years

Key result: TAVR was non-inferior to surgical replacement for the primary endpoint in intermediate-risk patients.
2019

PARTNER 3 Trial

n = 1,000 · NEJM

Tested

TAVR with SAPIEN 3 valve

Population

Patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis at low surgical risk

Comparator

Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement (SAVR)

Endpoint

Composite of death, stroke, or rehospitalization at 1 year

Key result: TAVR was superior to surgery with a significantly lower rate of the primary composite endpoint at 1 year.
2024

EARLY TAVR Trial

n = 901 · NEJM

Tested

Early Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

Population

Asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis

Comparator

Clinical surveillance

Endpoint

Composite of cardiovascular death, stroke, or unplanned hospitalization for heart failure or valve-related symptoms

Key result: Early TAVR was superior to clinical surveillance in reducing the primary composite endpoint.

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